A week ago I was browsing the Yardbarker.com site when I came across an interesting blog called Baseball Playoffs Now written by Dan Jarratt. Dan has created a mathematical formula to predict the final records of all Major League teams. He also uses mathematics to predict how the MLB playoffs will turn out. He updates his site daily so the predictions are always current. I am not a true disciple of the sabermetric baseball analysis but I do enjoy reading and discussing new statistical ways to view baseball. In this entry I am going to comment on Dan's NL predictions.
In his June 9 post Dan has the Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Philadelphia Phillies as the three NL division winners and the St. Louis Cardinals as the NL wild card team. In his June 10 post he has the Cubs sweeping the Diamondbacks and the Phillies sweeping the Cardinals in the first round of the playoffs and the Cubs sweeping the Phillies in the NLCS. While I agree with Dan's four NL playoff teams I don't see the playoffs turning out the way his formula predicts.
I would give the Cubs a slight edge over the Diamondbacks and I agree Chicago should beat Arizona in a best of five NLDS. But I don't see any way the Cubs will be able to steamroll a team that will have a playoff rotation of Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, and Randy Johnson. Instead of a sweep I can see a playoff series between the Cubs and Diamondbacks going the full five games with the Cubs eventually coming out on top.
In the other series I believe the Phillies will man-handle the Cardinals. The Phillies are clearly the better team and should have little problem with the Cardinals. In this instance I agree with Dan's projections.
A Phillies - Cubs match up in the NLCS would be an outstanding series for baseball fans. Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, and Alfonso Soriano against Cole Hamels, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins would be a great showcase for the National League. As things stand now I agree with Dan's prediction the Cubs would win the series but I don't see it happening in four straight games. The Phillies lineup is too powerful to lose four straight to anyone in a playoff series.
Later this week I will break down Dan's AL predictions. I want to thank Dan for allowing me to reference his blog and I would encourage all of my readers to check out Baseball Playoffs Now. The URL is http://baseballplayoffsnow.blogspot.com