Kershaw or Halladay?

Update: shortly after I posted this entry it was announced the Philadelphia chapter of the Baseball Writers Association named Cliff Lee the Phillies pitcher of the year. I will post a revision to this entry soon and include Lee in the discussion.

Rounding Third and Heading Home has returned! I had several items that filled my life this summer and I was left with little time to watch games and no time to post to this blog. But things have now settled down and I’m once again able write. Hope everyone enjoys reading my thoughts and opinions.


With all due respect to the other National League pitchers that are having outstanding seasons, I see the NL Cy Young Award as a two horse race between Clayton Kershaw and Roy Halladay. To begin, I will compare Kershaw and Halladay using four traditional statistics: earned run average, (walks+hits)/innings pitched ratio, strikeouts per 9 innings pitched, and strikeout to walk ratio  


Comparison Using Traditional Statistics

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
Clayton Kershaw	2.27	0.99	9.64	4.57
Roy Halladay	2.41	1.05	8.58	6.38

Kershaw does walk more batters, but his ERA, WHIP and K/9 are better than Halladay's. But the traditional statistics don't take into account the home ballpark of the pitcher, the defense behind the pitcher, and various elements of good and bad fortune a pitcher has during the season. Thankfully, we have a website like FanGraphs and modern statistical analysis to help us get a clearer picture of which pitcher is having the better season.

I chose three sabermetric statistics to use in this comparison: wins above replacement, fielding independent pitching, and expected fielding independent pitching. If you are not familiar with these statistics click on the table heading for a more detailed explanation.

Comparison using Sabermetric Statistics

Pitcher	WAR	FIP	xFIP
Roy Halladay	8.0	2.18	2.68
Clayton Kershaw	6.8	2.42	2.82

When home ballpark, balls in play, and team defense are considered, Roy Halladay seems to be having the better season. Clayton Kershaw benefits from pitching half of his games at Dodger Stadium and having a better defense behind him. But even when these additional factors are included in the discussion, the numbers are very close.

A strong case can be made for either pitcher. Even though I'm a firm believer in sabermetric statistical analysis, I don't believe the traditional statistics like ERA, WHIP, and K/9 should be ignored when evaluating a player's performance. Even though both pitchers are deserving, Kershaw has had a phenomenal year and I believe he should win the Cy Young Award.  

Former Bees in New Organizations

Former Salt Lake Bees players that have signed with new organizations for the 2011 season.

PLAYER	NEW TEAM	YEARS WITH SL
Kevin Gregg	Orioles	2003, 2005-06
Bobby Jenks	Red Sox	2004
Dallas McPherson	White Sox	2004-06
Fernando Rodriguez	Astros	2009-10
Steven Shell	Royals	2006-07
Wil Nieves	Brewers	2003-04
Dustin Moseley	Padres	2005-06, 08
Terry Evans	Giants	2007-10
Shane Loux	Giants	2008-09
Joel Peralta	Rays	2003-05
Ryan Budde	Blue Jays	2004-09
Mike Napoli	Blue Jays to Rangers	2006

Setting the Record Straight

By now, anyone that follows baseball knows that Detroit Tigers pitcher Armando Galarraga was robbed of a perfect game last night on a bad call by umpire Jim Joyce. If you are not aware of what happened, you can read game reports at Yahoo Sports and MLB.com. The short version is Armando Galarraga was one out away from pitching a perfect game when umpire Jim Joyce mistakenly called the Cleveland hitter safe at first. What should have been the last out of a perfect game masterpiece instead will forever be remembered for the horrible call that denied a young pitcher of a place in baseball immortality. This call was the topic of discussion on ESPN Radio's Mike & Mike radio show this morning but the discussion wasn't only about the missed call in last night's Tigers - Indians game. Jim Joyce's mistake opened the door to revisit Don Denkinger's missed call in the 1985 World Series. The radio hosts and guests erroneously pointed out that Denkinger's call cost the St. Louis Cardinals the 1985 World Series. Today's entry is an effort to once again set the record straight on Denkinger's call.

When Jim Joyce called Jason Donald safe last night the perfect game was lost. No matter what Armando Galarraga did from that point forward he had no chance to restore the perfect game. The umpire's blown call irrevocably cost Galarraga a place in baseball history. What many fans and people in the media fail to realize is this is not what happened the to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Two years ago, I wrote an entry on Game 6 of the 1985 World Series telling Cardinals fans to stop whining about Don Denkinger call costing them the World Series. If you are one that believes the mythology that Don Denkinger's missed call is the reason the Royals won the 1985 World Series, check out "Stop Crying Cardinals Fans." Unlike Galarraga last night, the umpire's missed call in the 85 Series did not irrevocably rob the Cardinals of a championship. Denkinger's call had nothing to do with the routine foul ball that Jack Clark and Darrell Porter didn't catch, the wild pitch that Todd Worrell uncorked, or the Cardinals unprofessional performance in game 7.

Jim Joyce's call was a permanent denial of Armando Gallaraga's effort to pitch a perfect game. Sadly for Gallaraga, he didn't have a chance to redeem himself after the call. The Cardinals had many chances after Denkinger's call and blew each one of them. Gallaraga can place the blame on Joyce. The Cardinals had no one to blame but themselves.

Brian Bannister

In a recent interview Brian Bannister did with Baseball Prospectus Radio he discussed how he uses statistical analysis to evaluate his pitching, photography, Billy Butler, and warns everyone to NEVER tough Kyle Farnsworth's glove. All baseball fans will enjoy listening to this 13 minute interview.

Baseball Prospectus Radio.

Playing the Game the Right Way???

Yesterday afternoon I watched the Royals play the Rangers and was disappointed to see the type of baseball the Royals are still playing. Behind Luke Hochevar's outstanding performance the Royals did win the game, but the Royals approach showed me they are mired in a philosophy that will not consistently produce runs or victories.

In the third inning with the score tied 1-1, Mike Aviles lead off with a double and the 3-4-5 hitters were coming up. The Royals were in position to have a big inning but they chose to implement a strategy that prevented them from scoring multiple runs, all in the name of "playing the game the right way."

Billy Butler followed Aviles. Butler has mashed the ball all season, posting a .358/.395/.511 line. But Butler did not try to drive the ball or hit it hard. His goal was not to get a base hit. Instead, Butler shortened his swing in an effort to push the ball to the right side of the infield. The result was a weak ground out to first base which advanced Aviles to third. The moment the ball left Butler's bat, Royals television announcers Ryan Lefebvre and Frank White began to praise Butler for "getting the job done." They talked about Butler "giving himself up" and doing a good job of "rolling over and hitting the ball to the right side." Lefebvre and White's babble was enough to make any intelligent baseball fan ill. The reality is the Royals had one of their top hitters make a weak out for the sake of advancing a runner that was already in scoring position.

Jose Guillen followed Butler and hit a routine fly ball to left field scoring Mike Aviles. As Aviles was crossing the plate Lefebvre exclaimes "that was GREAT situational baseball by the Royals." Alberto Callaspo grounded out to end the inning and the Royals scored one run.

I'm sure Dayton Moore and Ned Yost viewed that inning as Ryan Lefebvre and Frank White, as a huge success. The truth is the Royals are continuing to ignore valid statistical research in a attempt to play their misguided version of fundamental baseball. I'm sure Texas manager Ron Washington was grateful that Butler didn't try to drive the ball and was willing to weakly ground out. I'm sure Texas pitcher Scott Fieldman, looking at facing Butler, Guillen, and Callaspo with a runner in scoring position and no outs, was thankful to get out of the inning allowing only one run.

There is a time to play for one run. If a near automatic out like Chris Getz or Willie Bloomquist is coming to bat or late in a ball game when one run decides the outcome. But the third inning of a 1-1 game with the heart of the order coming up is not the time. Sadly, the inning I described is Kansas City Royals baseball and an indication the Royals are basing their philosophy on old-school mythology.

Does Anyone Still Believe in Dayton Moore?

Royals GM Dayton Moore fired manager Trey Hillman yesterday. This entry is not to criticize Moore for firing Hillman. It has been well chronicled in the mainstream media and in the blogs that Hillman was in over his head as Royals manager. But to place more than a fraction of the blame for the Royals struggles on Trey Hillman is wrong because Dayton Moore is the one responsible for the continued downward spiral of the Royals. As long has Moore has control over the operation of the Royals, Kansas City will not have a contending team.

It would not matter if Mike Scioscia, Sparky Anderson, or Earl Weaver were managing the Royals, the result would be the same because the Kansas City Royals are a lousy team. Trey Hillman was forced to manage the club assembled by Dayton Moore. Trey Hillman was not a good manager, but the blame for the continued failure of the Royals does not rest with him. The blame and responsibility for what the Kansas City Royals are today belongs squarely on the shoulders of the inept, yet arrogant Dayton Moore.

Is There Hope for Luke Hochevar?

As long as Dayton Moore is the GM, I am not optimistic about the Royals chances of being a contending team. Time and time again, Moore has proven he has no idea how to go about building a competitive team. But I am not so cynical about the Royals that I don't see the few bright spots, even when they are not obvious. One of these bright spots is former #1 draft choice Luke Hochevar. Many Royals fans will look at Hochevar's 2010 5.65 ERA and write him off as another failed Royals draft pick. But if Hochevar can begin to limit the number of walks he is allowing he could establish himself as a reliable Major League pitcher because he is displaying some solid skills.

Hochevar's current 4.91 BB/9 is alarming but I'm going to assume this is an anomaly and that his true ability is closer to the 2.90 BB/9 he produced in 143 IP in 2009. If Hochevar can begin to find the plate, a lot of his woes will vanish.

A look at some of Hochevar's 2010 numbers shows, in many ways, he is not pitching poorly but has fallen victim to bad luck and poor defense.

GS	IP	BABIP	GB%	FB%	SO9	BB9	HR9	SO/BB
7	36.7	.347	49.2%	22.1%	5.65	4.91	.25	1.15

If you are not familar with the BABIP statistic, I would suggest you read my previous entry on Angels' pitcher Joe Saunders or the BABIP overview presented on the Sabermetrics Library website. Hochevar's BABIP of .347 shows that he has pitched in very tough luck in 2010. The 49.2% ground ball rate shows that he is doing an excellent job of keeping the ball down in the strike zone and many of those ground balls are getting through the infield. Not much any pitcher can do about that. Unless bad luck follows Hochevar the entire season, things should begin to even out and the ground balls that have been hits will start to become outs.

Hopefully Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman will looked beyond a meaningless statistic like ERA and allow Hochever the opportunity to work out his control issues. If Hochevar can begin to throw strikes and continue to make hitters to hit the ball on the ground, he will a valuable pitcher for the Royals.